The Backtest That Lied to You
AI can find a perfect strategy in historical data in minutes. That is exactly the problem. A look at overfitting and how to test honestly.
2 min read
Your Trading Model Doesn't Know What Weather It's In
Most AI trading strategies are trained on one kind of market and quietly deployed into another. Regime awareness is the missing layer that tells a model when to trust itself and when to sit down.
2 min read
The Best Number in Your Agent's Report Is How Often It Said No
Every trading agent dashboard shows win rate, Sharpe, drawdown. Almost none show abstention rate — the share of opportunities the agent looked at and declined. That omission is not an oversight. It is a design flaw.
2 min read
Your Backtest Is Lying to You, and Your AI Agent Believes It
An AI trading agent can search a million variations of a strategy in an afternoon. That is exactly the problem. When the search is cheap, the beautiful equity curve stops being evidence and starts being an accident you paid for.
9 min read
The Pre-Mortem: A Five-Minute Habit Before Any Big Decision
Before you commit to a big call, spend five minutes imagining it already failed and writing down why. It surfaces the risk you were quietly ignoring.
2 min read
Your AI Trading Agent Needs a Risk Budget, Not More Signals
Most AI trading setups obsess over better predictions. The setups that survive obsess over what happens when the prediction is wrong.
2 min read